XI
Xometry, Inc. (XMTR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 revenue of $148.5M grew 16% YoY, exceeding the company’s prior Q4 guidance range of $145–$147M; marketplace revenue rose 20% YoY to $135.0M and marketplace gross margin hit a record 34.5% . Adjusted EBITDA turned positive to $1.0M (vs. $(2.9)M in Q4’23) on record gross profit of $59.0M .
- Management guided Q1’25 revenue to $147–$149M (20–21% YoY), with an approximate $1M FX headwind, and an Adjusted EBITDA loss of ~$1.5M due to a temporary gross margin dampener from accelerated global sourcing; they expect margins to improve into Q2 and to be Adjusted EBITDA positive for FY25 .
- Enterprise traction and international strength were notable: Active Buyers +23% YoY to 68,267; international revenue rose to $24.9M in Q4 (vs. $17.6M in Q4’23). Management reiterated a long-term goal for international to reach 30–40% of marketplace revenue and highlighted multi-modal and generative AI roadmap for quoting and matching .
- Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable due to API limits, so we benchmark results to company guidance; upside vs. Q4 guidance and a path to FY25 Adjusted EBITDA profitability are key potential stock catalysts .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record marketplace margins and profitability: Marketplace gross margin expanded 320 bps YoY to a record 34.5%, driving positive Adjusted EBITDA of $1.0M. CFO: “Q4 marketplace gross margin…record 34.5%…drove Adjusted EBITDA to a profit of $1.0 million” .
- Enterprise and buyer growth: Active Buyers +23% YoY to 68,267; accounts with LTM spend ≥$500k grew revenue >40% in 2024; strongest quarterly net adds of active buyers in 2024 (+3,416) .
- International momentum and AI roadmap: International growth was “robust” with revenue up 42% YoY in Q4 and a $100M run-rate; management articulated multi‑modal AI to quote from drawings (not just 3D CAD), broadening TAM and improving conversion .
What Went Wrong
- Supplier Services contraction: Q4 Supplier Services revenue fell 13% YoY to $14.0M; Active Paying Suppliers declined 9% YoY, reflecting exit of non-core services and macro pressure on advertising/marketing .
- Continued GAAP losses: Q4 GAAP net loss was $(9.9)M; for FY24, GAAP net loss was $(50.4)M despite improvements, underscoring ongoing investment needs .
- Near‑term margin headwind: Management flagged a temporary Q1’25 marketplace gross margin dip due to accelerated global sourcing amid trade-policy volatility; implies near-term pressure on profitability before improvement into Q2 .
Financial Results
Summary Financials
Notes: Consolidated gross profit implies consolidated gross margin of ~39.7% in Q4 (CFO commentary) .
Segment and Mix
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Powered by AI, our manufacturing marketplace continues to gain significant market share… In Q4, our AI-powered marketplace delivered record revenue, record gross profit and record marketplace gross margin. We generated positive adjusted EBITDA” .
- CFO: “Q4 marketplace gross margin was a record 34.5%, up 320 basis points year-over-year… Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $1 million or 0.7% of revenue” .
- On international mix: “We expect [international] to be about 30% to 40% of our marketplace revenue… EMEA strong growth; APAC early days but will be more meaningful in 2025” .
- On multi‑modal AI: “Customers would have the ability to upload a flat file or drawing and get an instant quote… This will open up a large universe… reduce friction… more profitable” .
- On Q1 margin: “Accelerated our global sourcing strategy… having some dampening impact on a quarter‑over‑quarter basis for gross margin… expect marketplace gross margin to improve into Q2” .
Q&A Highlights
- International path and AI roadmap: Management reiterated 30–40% long‑term international mix target and explained multi‑modal AI enabling quoting from drawings, improving conversion and profitability .
- Tariffs and sourcing impact: Buyers are proactively mitigating risk via multi‑geography sourcing; Xometry reflected initial tariffs in pricing and accelerated supplier expansion (e.g., India, Turkey), causing a temporary Q1 margin headwind before recovery .
- Enterprise momentum and Teamspace: Enhanced selling motion (segmentation) and Teamspace/ERP/CAD integrations reduced friction and drove deeper penetration with large accounts .
- Orders/marketing: Record net adds of active buyers in Q4; marketing increasingly personalized and segmented; management expects continued order growth into Q1’25 .
- Thomas monetization: Focus on launching a new ad server and increasing advertiser penetration from ~1% before deeper integration with the core marketplace .
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus estimates (revenue and EPS) for Q4 2024 and the prior two quarters, but the SPGI API request limit was exceeded and the data was unavailable at this time. As a result, we benchmark results against company guidance and historical results rather than Street consensus [GetEstimates API error].
- Relative to company guidance, Q4 revenue exceeded the prior $145–$147M outlook and Adjusted EBITDA was positive, better than the “slight” profit implied previously .
- Given management’s Q1’25 guide (revenue +20–21% YoY; ~$(1.5)M Adj. EBITDA), consensus models may need to reflect: temporary Q1 margin compression from sourcing mix, improving into Q2; ≥20% marketplace growth cadence through FY25; Supplier Services down 5–10% for the year .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Revenue momentum and execution: Q4 revenue topped company guidance and marked the third straight quarterly high, with marketplace margins at record levels—supportive of the path to sustained profitability .
- Profitability inflection: Positive Q4 Adjusted EBITDA ($1.0M) and a guide to FY25 Adjusted EBITDA profitability, with ~20% incremental EBITDA leverage targeted, suggest operating scale benefits as revenue approaches $1B over time .
- Temporary Q1 margin dip is strategic: Accelerated global sourcing mitigates tariff/trade risk and should expand the network/serviceability; management expects margins to improve into Q2 .
- Enterprise and AI as core flywheels: Enterprise growth (>40% in ≥$500k accounts in 2024) and multi‑modal/generative AI enhancements (quoting from drawings, improved matching) should sustain pricing power and gross profit growth .
- International runway: With Q4 international revenue up strongly YoY and long‑term mix targeted at 30–40%, APAC and Europe are key growth vectors; FX is a modest headwind (~$1M Q1’25, ~$4M FY25 if rates hold) .
- Thomas monetization optionality: New ad server and low advertiser penetration (~1% of ~500k listers) create upside if engagement and monetization improve; near‑term revenue headwinds persist but margins are high .
- Risk‑reward framing: Continued GAAP losses, Supplier Services contraction, and near‑term gross margin variability remain risks; however, consistent marketplace margin expansion and enterprise/international traction are constructive for medium‑term thesis .
Appendix: Additional Relevant Q4 Press Releases
- Supplier network expansion: Xometry announced >4,200 active suppliers by Nov. 20, 2024, underscoring network depth and breadth for global matching and quoting .
- Q4 press release (Feb. 25, 2025) confirmed quality certifications (IATF 16949, AS9100, ISO13485) and a new patent on ML predictions, supporting enterprise use‑cases and differentiation .